“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。     

极地环境监测网的设计及其在南极普里兹湾的应用

为了保护南极和北极的生态系统和环境,中国自20世纪90年代初开始推行和实施了极地环境监测计划,部署了各学科监测传感器阵列;采集了多学科数据,包括海洋、大气、冰冻圈、生物圈等主题;架构了"R/V雪龙号破冰船—极地考察站—国内基地"之间的快速数据传输网络;建立了海洋环境监测系统、太阳能地面空间监测系统、生态环境监测系统等系列监测系统。为了实现长期监测,达到预测和预警目标,本文针对国内外现状,在现有基础上设计了一套中国极地环境长期监测网(Polar Environment monitoring network of China,CPEMN)。该监测网集成各监测系统并在监测指标设计上覆盖我国极地所有常规监测/观测任务,且根据国际科研动态和长期监测规划拓展了预期监测范围。最后本文利用南极普里兹湾进行的破冰导航应用示范验证了CPEMN具有可执行性。     

A polar method for obtaining wave resonating quadruplets in finite depths

A polar method for obtaining wave resonating quadruplets {K₁, K₂, K₃, K₄} in the computation of nonlinear wave–wave interaction source term of the wave model is presented with results for both deep and finite water depths. The method first determines the end radial points of the locus equation for K₂, for each set of input wave vectors (K₁, K₃) on the symmetry. The locus of K₂ (and hence K₄) is then traced in the anti-clockwise direction starting with the maximum radial point on the line of symmetry. It is shown that when k₃>k₁, the number of points on the locus varies when the orientations of the input wave vectors are changed and reduces when the difference in the magnitude of the input wave vectors is increased. A significant advantage in this method is that the angular increment on the locus for K₂ can be kept constant.     

用于极地的中尺度大气模式Polar MM5的改进和检验

介绍了一个用于极地研究的中尺度大气模式———Polar MM5,阐述了该模式区别于标准的中尺度大气模式MM5的动力学和物理特征。利用Polar MM5获得了10 d的模拟结果表明,Polar MM5能较好地模拟高纬度地区近地面气象变量特征,尤其是对近地面温度和水汽混合比可得到高精度模拟结果,证实了在高纬度地区对标准MM5所进行的物理参数化方案的改进是切实有效的。     

New perspectives on Mars’ crustal magnetic field

The planet Mars lacks, today, a planetary, dynamic magnetic field, but strong, intense, localized magnetic fields of lithospheric origin, one to two orders of magnitude larger than the terrestrial lithospheric field, are present. This lithospheric magnetic field is the result of magnetization processes in the presence of a magnetic dynamo and of demagnetization processes after the dynamo shutdown, such as impact or volcanoes. This crude scenario can be more accurately specified by interpreting global and local models of the current magnetic field of Mars. Some specific areas are studied, including the intensely magnetized Terra Sirenum, as well as the magnetic anomaly associated with Apollinaris Patera. Magnetic minerals could be of primary and/or secondary origin; this latter would imply an early hydration of a basaltic crust. A scenario, in which Mars experienced a major polar wander due to the Tharsis bulge, prior to the cessation of its dynamo, is proposed and discussed.     

Analysis of village accessibility and its impact on land use dynamics in a mountainous province of northern Vietnam

Surveys carried out in mountainous areas of northern Vietnam at research sites selected across a gradient of market integration, revealed strong relationships between the location of the village with respect to the national road network and the nature of its land-use systems, its poverty level and more generally its potential for development. We developed and tested in Bac Kan province a method to give an objective and quantitative definition of accessibility over a large geographic area. Accessibility maps integrated in a provincial GIS showed that despite recent improvements to the road network, some remote areas do not benefit from recent development.     

Sediment concentration changes in runoff pathways from a forest road network and the resultant spatial pattern of catchment connectivity

Hydrological connectivity is a term often used to describe the internal linkages between runoff and sediment generation in upper parts of catchments and the receiving waters. In this paper, we identify two types of connectivity: direct connectivity via new channels or gullies, and diffuse connectivity as surface runoff reaches the stream network via overland flow pathways. Using a forest road network as an example of a landscape element with a high runoff source strength, we demonstrate the spatial distribution of these two types of linkages in a 57 km² catchment in southeastern Australia. Field surveys and empirical modelling indicate that direct connectivity occurs primarily due to gully development at road culverts, where the average sediment transport distance is 89 m below the road outlet. The majority of road outlets were characterised by dispersive flow pathways where the maximum potential sediment transport distance is measured as the available hillslope length below the road outlet. This length has a mean value of 120 m for this catchment. Reductions in sediment concentration in runoff plumes from both pathways are modelled using an exponential decay function and data derived from large rainfall simulator experiments in the catchment. The concept of the volume to breakthrough is used to model the potential delivery of runoff from dispersive pathways. Of the surveyed road drains (n=218), only 11 are predicted to deliver runoff to a stream and the greatest contributor of runoff occurs at a stream crossing where a road segment discharges directly into the stream. The methodology described here can be used to assess the spatial distribution and likely impact of dispersive and gullied pathways on in-stream water quality.     

Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the “Belt and Road” Initiative Countries based on Virtual Water Theory

Most countries along the route of the “Belt and Road” initiative are faced with a shortage of water resources. However, successful implementation of the initiative depends on water availability to support economic and social development. We designed a water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system, assigned grades and weights to each evaluation index and calculated a water resources carrying index for the 65 countries along the route. We used virtual water theory to analyze China’s net virtual water import from key bulk agricultural products through international trade. For more than half of the countries along the route, their water resources will be unable to support the economic development that will be necessary for fulfilling the goals of the Initiative. As a country with insufficient water resources carrying capacity, China is a net virtual water importer in the virtual water trade. This virtual water trade can improve China’s water resources support capacity, and ensure China’s water and food security for the future.     

“海上丝绸之路”超大城市环境变化遥感分析

随着城市化进程的加快,如何及时、精确地对城市环境的变化做出评价,进而制定出合理的发展方案,对城市可持续发展至关重要。本文综合利用卫星遥感获取的PM_2.5浓度数据、地表温度数据（Land Surface Temperature,LST）、植被指数数据（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）及城市用地辅助信息数据,基于综合评价指标,分析海上丝绸之路沿线12个超大城市地区2000-2013年环境质量的动态变化。研究结果表明,2000-2013年,海上丝绸之路沿线约75%的超大城市呈现出不同程度的环境恶化现象。12个超大城市用地环境恶化及逐步恶化面积占研究区域总面积的31.33%（4732.39 km²）。2000-2013年,城市扩张用地恶化和逐步恶化面积约占总扩张用地的29.48%（3765.83 km²）。平均地表温度的上升、植被覆盖度的急剧下降及PM_2.5浓度的增加均对海上丝绸之路沿线超大城市环境质量变化产生影响。其中,空气中PM_2.5浓度的大幅度增加是2000-2013年海上丝绸之路沿线超大城市扩张用地环境退化的主要原因。     

中国-丝路国家基础设施连通性评估方法与格局

基础设施互联互通是不同区域之间空间网络形成的支撑,对区际生产要素流动、市场融合和资源配置具有重要作用,也是“一带一路”建设的重点内容和前提条件。立足于综合基础设施网络,以“一带一路”沿线国家/地区为分析地域,设计数理模型,评价了中国与沿线国家的基础设施网络连通性,考察其基本特征与空间格局,然后分别从铁路、公路、航运、通讯、能源等各种基础设施方式的视角,分析了不同基础设施网络的互联互通水平,探讨了基础设施连通的类型分异及其主导因素,凝练基础设施连通的空间模式。主要结论如下：① 从海陆属性来看,岛屿型国家与中国设施连通性最高,其次为综合型国家,内陆型国家最低。对国际区域而言,俄蒙和东南亚地区与中国的设施连通性最高,中东欧地区连通性最低。从国家尺度来看,俄罗斯和越南是与中国设施连通水平最高的国家,巴勒斯坦、东帝汶等5个国家与中国尚未形成设施连通性。从连通方式的构成来看,航运网络的连通性最高,其次为航空和光缆。② 空间距离、连通方式和重大交通走廊共同主导了设施连通性的类型分异。③ “一带一路”沿线国家/地区与中国的设施连通形成了四种典型模式,包括海陆融合型外缘连通模式、陆路通道直接连通模式、陆心内生性低水平连通模式、远距离不均衡连通模式。